Should Shields and Garza be Shut Down?

 




Jim Prisching / AP

Recently I have been hearing more and more chatter about the Rays shutting down Rays starters Matt Garza and James Shields before the end of the 2009 season. There are several great reasons for this to happen, but the most compelling  answer might be that if the Rays are not playing for anything in particular, like a playoff berth, maybe they should shut down their work horses before the Rays last home stand of the season.

This makes  a lot of sense for several reasons, but the clear facts that the Rays have other pitchers in their Bullpen who could take some of the slack off both of the starters. over the Lance Cormier, Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Bennett could  throw some valuable innings right now to  perserve both Shields and Garza for the 2010 season.

And there lies an interesting situation for the Rays Caoching staff. All three of these Bullpen pitchers  have at one time or another been spot starters either in the minor or major leagues. And the possibility of each or all of them pitching at least 4-6 innings of work could take some of the pressure off the Rays staff. But real problem might be in convincing both the competitve Garza and Shields that they can take a rest because of what they have both done since the beginning of the 2008 season.

The reality of shutting both of them down does merit a great amount of thought since both guys will either be passing or nearing their  innings pitched totals for 2008 in their next two starts. Neither pitcher has anything to prove to the Rays staff or fans. We know they have been the studs who have gone out there every 5 days and thrown their arms off for this team in both 2008 and 2009. And maybe a little more pitching information on both of them in the last two seasons might make this decision a whole lot easier for the fans to digest.


Gail Burton /AP


Considering that in 2008, Garza and Shields were the only pair of MLB pitchers to toss 2 complete games each while allowing 2 hits or less. And that statistic alone is a monumental feat for a team that has always struggled with their starting pitching to hold a degree of solidarity. But if you add to that overall mix the fact that both of them also threw an additional 25 innings each during the 2008 Post Season, and that by adding those innings  to either their 2008 or 2009 pitching totals, it would take both of them way beyond their previous top inning marks in the Major Leagues. 

And a  honest fact that might have eluded most of the Rays fan base is the odd fact that Shields will easily become the only Rays pitcher to ever throw three straight 200+ innings in a season with his next start. And Shields, os also the only Rays starter to ever throw 2 consecutive 200+ innings in a season. Shields has been a thoughbred during the last two years throwing 215 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and that mark was only 9 innings short during both seasons of the 2002  pitching record set by ex-Rays Tanyon Sturtze (224).

During the 2008 regular season, Shields went to the hill 33 times for the Rays and posted a 14-8 record with a 3.56 ERA. To further boast the reputation of Shields, only Toronto’s Roy Halladay (471.1) posted more innings than Shields (430) in the past two seasons in the American League. But in 2009, there have been times that it actually looked like maybe he was having a “Post Season Hangover” because of the extra 25 innings tossed in the 2008 playoffs.


Elaine Thompson / AP


Add his 33 starts to his 4 starts in the post season, and Shields went to the hill 37 times for the Rays just last season. And during his last 10 starts  so far in 2009, he has averaged at least 6 innings of work before leaving the game. But during that time, Shields has also seen his ERA slowly creeping up from a 3.70 to 4.03 ERA. This might be a subtle change, but it might also be an indication that his arm is beginning to tire a bit, and shutting him down could prevent injury or complications in 2010.

But the same scenario can also apply for Garza. Even though in 2008 he did miss a few starts due to a radial nerve irritation situation in April and missed 16 games on the disabled list. But even with his missing a few starts in 2008, the Rays gunslinger threw 184.2 innings last season and also tossed an additional 25 innings in the post season. Garza took the mound for the Rays in 30 regular season starts, and like Shields also started 4 games in the Rays run to the 2008 World Series. That would push Garza’s 2008 total to 209.2 total innings, which is a lot for any pitchers first full-season in the Major Leagues.

And in 2008 he responded  to the Rays challenge with a 11-9 record and a 3.70 ERA in those 30 regular season starts. But it was his two srats in the 2008 American League Championship Series that established Garza  as a threat every time out on the mound. During that series he allowed only 2 earned runs in 13 innings and posted a 1.38 ERA during the ALCS 7-game series against the Red Sox. But it was his stellar performance in Game 7 held on October 19,2008 that has endeared him to Rays fans forever.

During that contest, Garza threw for 7-innings and produced a 2-hit, 1-run gem against the Red Sox while striking out 9 Boston hitters. It was a truly gutsy clutch performance, and a feat that eventually garnered him the 2008 ALCS Most Valuable Player award by allowing only 7 total hits in his 13 innings during the 7-game series. In doing so, Garza became the youngest pitcher ever to win the ALCS MVP award while holding Boston to a .226 batting average and gaining victories against, Red Sox starter Jon Lester in both their starts in the ALCS.


www.tbo.com

And in 2009, Garza also has push onward and upward  and had classic Rays moments, but also had outings where it looked like the carry over post season innings might have given him a bit of arm fatigue. Garza has posted only a 7-10 record this season with a 3.84 ERA. Though todays game, Garza has already made 29 starts for the Rays,and has surpassed his 2008 inning pitched total by a 1/3 of an inning (185).

Over his last 10 starts this season, Garza has averaged 6 2/3rds innings of work, with only one outing against the Los Angeles Angels  did he throw less than 5 innings. In that contest on August 10, 2009, Garza lasted 3.1 innings and surrendered 4-runs on 6-hits while also being tagged for 2 homers in the outing. And Garza has gone at least seven i
nnings in his last two starts for the Rays, which was beneficial to the Rays as they sorted out some Bullpen malfunctions. 

Coming into tonight’s game against the Orioles, it is possible for  Shields to have a total of three more starts in 2009,  he should be going to the hill in the Rays last road trip of 2009 to Texas (Sept. 25) and  could have possibly two more starts at home against the Orioles ( Sept. 30) and the season finale against the New York Yankees on Sunday,October 4th.  Garza himself could be in line for at least two trips to the mound to conclude 2009, starting with a possible start against the Rangers (Sept. 26) and take the mound again in his last home appearance on October 1st against the Yankees.


Mike Carlson / AP

To decide to place either player on the bench for the rest of the season will be a difficult decision by the Rays. But the great fact that the Rays have three long relievers right now on their roster, and could even bring up an additional long reliever or starter after the Durham Bulls finish their playoff run, this give the team realistic options to shutting the pair down soon. Either way, the Rays could possibly shut down both of their top pitchers by the time the team returns from Texas on September 27th.

The Rays Coaching staffs decision has to be based on the total number of innings thrown by the young pair, with an eye towards the 2010 season. I actually see them maybe sitting down Garza after his start in Texas since he already has peaked out at around his 2008 innings totals. Shields might get two more starts at the most before they should shut him down.

Both pitcher should be proud of this seasons efforts and the level of stability they have established in both of their pitching in the last two seasons.  Subtle adjustments and pitching grip changes might be in order for both in the off season, but their collective 2009 seasons have given the Rays a chance to strive towards their post season goals all season long. 

Both pitchers have also established themselves among the best young arms in the AL East, and should develop more in 2010. I just hope both pitchers take the possible “shut downs” as a career positive and not a demotion or negative at all. Both have produced countless memories for the Rays in 2009, and I give both of them a standing ovation and a huge round of applaud for their efforts. If the season has no possible merits for the post season again, and the honest fact that the additional innings could increase their chances of injury, then they should be shut down to conserve  a pair of the Rays best resources.
 


Marc Avery / AP

The Rays starting pitching did not set the league on fire in 2009, but it did raise a few eyebrows to the competitive nature of this team, and the Rays should again be fighting for the division league for many years to come. Shields And Garza are two valuable member of the Rays future plans for success, and everything should be done in the team’s power to conserve and eliminate any possible injury situations in the last couple of weeks of the season. For we all want to again see both of them celebrating and having the time of their lives in the post season. And if that means sitting them right now, then that is the right decison.

8 Comments

You certainly make a good case for shutting them down. Why not preserve your valuable assets and make sure they’re healthy for next season – unless it would seriously undermine their confidence? You’re close to the situation, so you know how each guy would handle being shut down. It’s a tough decision for sure.

- http://janeheller.mlblogs.com

Jane,
With both Garza and Shields getting a chance to throw at home this weekend against Toronto, I think after that outing it could just be their last “home” starts of the season.
Depending how far Durham has to go in the International League’s Governor’s Cup Finals, that could also keep the wave of additional arms coming later in the season.
I think Shields would be more inclined to shut down than Garza based on their personalities.
But I also do not know if they have been masking some aches and pains the last few weeks and would welcome the shut down.
All in all, they have done an amazing job, and deserve to take a bit of a breather at the end of the season.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Thanks for stopping by.

I think it makes a lot of since shutting Garza and Shields down.

For one it saves them some resting time,

and it gives the younger guys a chance to “shine” as I call it.

Garza is a fighter, and I look for him to just dominate next year.

and sorry about the “Kazmir Trade” that really screwed the team up just like I predicted it would.

What is up with the front office?

The great thing is,

these are still “two young guys, who have great arms.” And they have a long career ahead of them.

Root them on for me, great post.

Ted’s Take

http://tribewithted.mlblogs.com/

I do think sitting them at this point may be wise. They don’t really have anything to play for this year, so why risk injury? It will also give them a chance to look at other guys and see what they’ve got.

Jenn
http://PhilliesPhollowers.MLBlogs.com/

Cliff – it makes perfect sense to shut them down. The Red Sox have done this in the past; why risk injury when there is nothing to be gained? I agree with you – they have nothing to prove to the team or their fans. Let them rest up for next season.

Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/

Ted,
You know, both guys are super competitors, and I do not consider either of them shutting down to be a bad thing here.
The two weeks extra rest might not seem like a lot right now, but I do not know what their bodies are telling them, and the team might not either.
I know when I was playing ball, I never told the coaches about my aches and pains unless ,I knew 100 percent I could not go that day.
I have a sneaking feeling they are the same, and might have some lingering effoects hitting them now for the long and productive season.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Jenn,
That is the wild chess game you have to play within that last month of the season.
Al but about 11 teams are currently in the mode of deciding just what to do in the last few weeks of the season with their starters since they are not contending.
I know the San Diego Padres have shut down Matt Latos to preserve his arm, and I expect the Pirates to do the same with Ross Ohlendorf after his next start.

Rays Renegade

http;//raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Julia,
Of course we wouls shut them down after we played the Yankees and Red Sox (lol).
Seriously, I think after this weekends starts on Friday and Saturday nights will be the key to deciding what will happen with their final 2 starts.
Add on the great playoff record so far for the Durham Bulls, we might have help by the middle of next week ast the latest.
I guess I am going to have to adapt a “wait and see” motif right now.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 272 other followers

%d bloggers like this: