Maddons Maddening Bullpen Mania

 


Brian Blanco / AP

I know a lot of Tampa Bay Rays fans have been a bit anxious and upset at the recent development over the last part of this 2009 season where it seems that Rays Manager Joe Maddon is wearing out the turf from the mound to the dugout sometimes changing a pitcher three times in an inning. For all the clammering and yelling towards the dugout to stop the madness, there is actually a good reason for his “match-up” formula, and the more you really look at the number, the more it seems to make sense in the long run.

Maddon would love to have that classic Bullpen set-up where you have that designated 7th, 8th and closer to round out the game. But with the injury to Troy Percival, and his shutting down his candidate-of-the-day J P Howell, he is apt to continue this wild stroll to the mound over the next 4 games. If you have noticed over the last three games, Grant Balfour right now is the closer-du Jour, and he has come away with three solid saves in the last three games.

Now this doesn’t mean he is going to get any notion of becoming the Rays closer, but the true fact that Maddon does look over the opposing line-up before the game with an eye towards the later innings. And in that time he does do a bit of matching-up on the back of his scorecard based on lifetime averages against some of his guys, and their ability to get outs from left or right-handed batters. And so far in this wild experiment, the prognosis has not been bad.

So let me take the 8th and 9th innings of the game last night and break them down a bit more and see if I can make it a little more easy for all of us to understand when he begins his Bullpen Blitz again tonight during the Baltimore Orioles game. But first off, let me remind you that the pattern does change for every game, and for every batter.

This same pattern might not show up the next four games, or it could even resurface tonight based on the pitching match-ups and the hitters. And Maddon does even look towards the guys that will be on the bench and matches them up as a precaution to them entering the game. So let’s get this guess work started right now:


Paul J Berewill / AP

Starting with the 8th inning, the Rays send out Russ Springer to start the inning to go up against Ty Wiggington. Now tonight is the first time either of them have faced each other in their long careers. This match-up really seems to be based more on  a feel by Maddon than an actual scientific fact since Springer is allowing lefties to hit .342 against him this season, and righties hitting .268. But he gets Wiggington to line out to centerfield for the first out.

Russ Springer relieved by Lance Cormier.

Cormier comes into the game with a sub .250 average aginst both left and right-handed hitters this season. He is one of about three Rays relievers that Maddon might have total confidence in him battling against guys from either side of the plate.  Cormier’s actual stats are that he is allowing lefties ti hit .243 against him, and right-handers have hit .255 against him this season, and both side have 3 home runs this year. First up is Nick Markakis, who was 0-2 against Cormier this season before taking the fourth pitch and getting an infield single off a hard shot to Reid Brignac at shortstop.

Up next is Luke Scott, who has faced Cormier two time prior to tonight and has only gained a walk from Cormier. Scott ends up hitting a fly ball out to leftfield to get the second out of the inning.  Next up for the Orioles is young catcher Matt Wieters.  In 2009, Cormier has faced Wieters only one time, and that was here in Tropicana Field when Cormier struck him out. In tonight’s contest Wieters takes 3 pitches before he grounds out to Ben Zobristat second base to strand Markakis on base and end the scoring opportunity for the Orioles.

Dan Wheeler relieves Cormier

Maddon sends his veteran reliever Dan Wheeler to the hill to begin the 9th inning. The first man to face him tonight will be Melvin Mora. The reason that Wheeler is on the mound is because right-hander, like Mora are hitting only  .154 against him in 2009, and against the first batter in his appearances, Wheeler is allowing them only a .161 average. But a side note to worry about in this at bat is the fact that Mora is hitting .500 off wheeler this season. But Maddon is rolling the dice on that .161 average allowed to the first batter Wheeler faces tonight.  On the second pitch, Mora singles to leftfield.


Steve Nesius / AP

Randy Choate relieves Dan Wheeler

Maddon then quickly gets Wheeler off the mound since the next batter is leftie Michael Aubrey. The reasoning here is that wheeler is allowing lefites to hit at a .310 clip against him in 2009. So on comes Randy Choate to face the young leftie. Choate actually is the perfect guy to face Aubrey as he is allowing lefties to hit only .151 against him this year, with only 1 home run. Choate gets Aubrey to strike out swinging in their only meeting this season.

Orioles Manager Dave Trembley then pinch Hits Lou Montanez for Jeff Fiorentino. And the mind games get to be played all over again by both managers. Montanez has not faced Choate in 2009, but the fact he is a right-hander, and righties are hitting .306 with 3 home runs against Choate gets him an early night for the Rays.

Grant Balfour relieves Randy Choate

Maddon again makes his way to the mound and take out Choate so that Grant Balfour can face the right-hander.
For the season, both right-hander and lefties are hitting sub .250 against Balfour too. He is another one of the three possible guys that Maddon trusts pitching against lefties and righties in an extended outing in a ballgame. And with Montanez, a rightie due up, it is only natural that the Aussie, who is surrendering only a .236 average to righties gets the call. Balfour gets the job dome as Montanez goes down after 5 pitches after missing on a swing for th
e strikeout. For the season, Montanez is 0-2 now against Balfour.

Since Balfour is consistent between hitters from both sides of the plate, Maddon will leave him in the rest of the inning. Next he will face shortstop Cesar Izturis. Balfour has the upper hand on Izturis as he is 0-2 against him so far in 2009. But it is Iztruis, who swings at the first pitch and sends a fly ball to centerfield that B J Upton gloves to end the game. Balfour also recieves his hris save in three games for the Rays and might be the 9th inning guy for the Rays in their final 4 games.

The system emplyed by Maddon makes more sense when you look at the fact he also shut down one of his other great pitchers at getting guys from hitting from both sides of the plate. When he set down J P Howell for the rest of the season, he lost his current closer option, and also lost a pitcher who has allowed righties to hit only .180 against him this season.

Other guys on the bench for the Rays are more situated for spot work the rest of the season. Take for example Jeff Bennett. Right-handers are hitting .333 (7-21) against him this season, and lefties are killing him at a .500 clip (14-28). So his use will be dictated by individual match-ups the rest of the season. Bennett was actually brought onto the squad as a insurance policy for long relief, but he was one of the main pitcher in that blowout last week in Texas.

Dale Thayer was not brought up for his facial hair, but was also considered a insurance policy for any possible problem that might happen with any of the Rays relievers. And it is a good thing they did bring him up, because Chad Bradford is experiencing elbow pains again and is done for the season. But Thayer is also learning the ropes at the Major League level, and has been hit by righties to a tune of a .345 average this season. He does have some good stuff to punch lefties back to a .250 average against him in 2009.

But Bradford has been used only 10 1/3 innings this season as he has been battling injuries. But also the fact he has given up some really gaudy numbers to both sides of the plate this year is another eason he has seen spot appearances this season. Against righties, they are hitting .391 (18-46) against him, and lefties just begin to salivate when he takes the mound as they are hitting a robust .800 (4-5) against him in 2009.

So the match-up scenario used by Maddon right now is the best possible option to try and post a victory every time out for the Rays. It might not make much sense when you are sitting in the stands or watching on the TV that he uses  5 different relievers for a total of two innings. But the end result in the last three games have been victories. This is not to mean that this is going to be a indicator of a system that will be empolyed in 2010.


Ted S Warren / AP

This match-up system is only being used now out of necessity because we do not have a proven late inning trio to take the Rays from the 7th to the 9th inning every night.  The Rays do not have a Mariano Rivera or a Jonathan Papelbon in their minor league system at the time, and might have go outside the organization for one in 2010.  And isn’t it ironic that the two best closer in the league tend to be in our division.

Maddon is adapting to the cards he has been dealt, and even if it is frustrating to the guy sitting in the stands, it does have some logic to it all. I also found it frustrating until I began to look at the numbers associated with each reliever and their breakdown against both sides of the plate. Sure it might be all science and a hitter can get a lucky break of a hanging curveball. But the relaity is that the system is working for Maddon right now, and it is producing wins for the team. It is not a cure-all situation, but is a nice substitute measure that he can emply for now until we can again try and shore up the Bullpen for 2010.

8 Comments

Once Percival went down, it was clear Maddon was only trying to do what was best for the team. As you point out, if you don’t have an 8th and 9th inning combo, you have to work match-ups to get hitters out. I think he’s just being creative until the Rays acquire a bona fide closer.

- http://janeheller.mlblogs.com

Jane,
To me, Percival was never an option after August of 2008.
He did get 6 save this season, but he was a waste of over $4 million this season.
I really did not figure out the true maych-up system until I chatted with Rays Post-Game host Rich Herrera.
It makes total sense, and maybe that is why it is so frustrating since most of the public do not see those match-up facts in front of them.
But hopefully only 5 more games of merry-go-round is in store for the Rays.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

It is interesting to see why certain relievers get called up in what innings for which batters. There is a logic behind it. I think that there are soome favorite relievers who get trotted out there no matter what their records are. It can get frustrating.
http://catlovesthedodgers.mlblogs.com

Cat,
There are guys I like to call the “Ying and Yang guys” that your team trusts no matter what the score. They are the ones that get the call during the blowouts and the close games.
But it is wild how the logic and the stats can change with every pitcher on your staff.
One guy I did not mention in my blog was Brian Shouse, but he also can be used for either side of the plate, but is primairy used as a leftie specialist.
The chess game can be quite consuming if you really follow the stats, but they do produce wins.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Cliff – It makes sense that Maddon wants to have the best pitcher possible for each hitter but the “new pitcher ever batter” merry-go-round really interrupts the flow of the game at times. We Red Sox fans have seen first hand how this effects a game and I can’t help but wonder if this won’t, in the long run, make the pitchers less effective. I hope that your team is healthy next season and that the Rays can find effective 7th & 8th inning pitchers.

Julia
http://werbiefitz.mlblogs.com/

Cliff: Its tough being the manager of the team with bullpen woes, and that is what “killed’ The TB Rays this year, plus the Kazmir trade.

I don’t get why they aren’t succeeding – maybe the pressure of a repeat world series appearance? Either way they should’ve done better in that aspect.

Ted
http://tribewithted.mlblogs.com/

Julia,
The good thing is that Maddon has told the media and the fans that this is a short term fix, and will not be business as ususal in 2010.
the team might even look into the possibility of trading for a closer since we have a logjam again starting to form in the minor leagues.
Worst case scenario, they will find one for under $5 million, but that is also a crapshoot that could backfire on them aka Percival.
Guess I just have to sit on my hands for a bit and thruets the front office…maybe

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

Ted,
For months the chatracter of this team has been called into question.
I honestly think that not until this last week has the vibe inside that clubhouse been as upbeat and as determined to thrist for some more wins.
A couple of things can be found to have been at the forefront of mistakes and errors this season, but the guys have not laid down yet, and that speaks volumes to their true character.

Rays Renegade

http://raysrenegade.mlblogs.com

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