Results tagged ‘ ALCS 2008 ’
Using Sims to Win the ALCS
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The following is an article posted to ESPN.com that goes over the chances and probabilities of the Tampa Bay Rays moving onto their FIRST ever World Series.
Last week, we ran our Diamond Mind simulation and predicted the Tampa Bay Rays would easily defeat the Chicago White Sox, most likely in three or four games, and the Los Angeles Angels would upend the defending world champion Boston Red Sox … although that prediction came with the stipulation that the odds would swing in favor of Boston if it pulled off a Game 1 victory. In fact, the simulations showed the Red Sox’s odds of winning the series increased from 42.6 percent to 67 percent if they won the opening game — and that Jon Lester would be a factor in whether they did. Sure enough, the Rays did polish off the White Sox in short order, and the Red Sox rode Lester’s stellar pitching to a Game 1 victory and went on to take the series from the Angels.
About the simulationThe simulations were done using the Diamond Mind Baseball software, which was developed by renowned baseball statistics expert Tom Tippett. Diamond Mind is widely regarded as the most sophisticated and realistic baseball simulation software.
Diamond Mind is owned by Imagine Sports, a Silicon Valley-based Internet company that develops multiplayer online sports games, including Diamond Mind Online, an online baseball management game licensed and promoted by MLB Advanced Media.
So what does our Diamond Mind simulation project for the American League Championship Series? Before revealing our projected results for the ALCS, here is a brief recap of our methodology:
• Although playoff rosters were not yet finalized, we used our best judgment about whom would be selected, the starting rotations, the batting orders and the bullpen and bench roles. • We made judgments about players carrying injuries into the postseason. Beyond deciding, for purposes of setting roles, whether or not a player would play, we did not attempt to simulate how such an injury might hamper the player, except to the extent already reflected in his regular-season performance.
As unpredictable as the outcome of the regular season can be, luck can play an even greater role in a short series. Nevertheless, the results of our Diamond Mind software showed Tampa Bay winning 1,107 of the 2,000 simulations, a 55.4 percent probability that the Ray will be the new AL champions. This series looks to be higher scoring than we’ve projected for the National League Championship Series — the Rays averaged 4.7 runs per game in our simulations, while the Red Sox averaged 4.3 runs per game. The table below shows the number of times out of the 2,000 simulations that each team could win the series.
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What They are Saying About the ALCS
I have a habit of traveling through the Internet seeking the truth and wisdom of the old school journalists and what they think of our upstart ballclub. I hit the web based sports sections of the major newspaper of the city and also some of the lesser known blogs and fan-based websites looking for some good and bad press about the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 success. Here are a few thing I found on Saturday about our beloved ballclub:
Dan Shaughnessy, Boston Globe
On Friday and Saturday:
”Now they call it Tropicana Field and it is truly hideous. Catwalks above. FieldTurf below. All-dirt base paths. Foul poles hanging from the ceiling like sleeping vampire bats. It’s baseball’s Big Top.”
”Somebody’s got to stand up to the Red Sox and right now it doesn’t feel like the Rays can do it. They had everything going for them last night and they came up short time and again.”
On Sunday:
Watching the Red Sox strand 13 runners and waste four homers, Boston fans were left asking one vital question: What’s up with Josh Beckett? He was Bob Gibson in October 2007. Now he is John Wasdin in October 2008.
Sean McAdam, Boston Herald
On Saturday:
“In blanking the Rays, 2-0, the Red Sox did more than take a lead in the ALCS; they effectively won back home-field advantage. Thanks to their shutout victory, the Sox could conceivably win the pennant without worrying about another win at Tropicana Field.”
On Sunday:
The Red Sox already knew they would have to defend their World Series crown without Mike Lowell. Come to find out, they’re going to have to do it without Josh Beckett, too. Or at least the Josh Beckett to which they’ve become accustomed. Because this Josh Beckett is not that Josh Beckett. Not even close.
Jack Curry, The New York Times
On Saturday:
“With the suddenly captivated fans of the Rays ringing cowbells and trying to implore their worst-to-first team, [Daisuke] Matsuzaka’s precise pitching acted as the ultimate silencer.”
On Sunday:
The Red Sox pushed, but the Rays shoved back. The Red Sox slapped the Rays, but they smacked back. It was a game the Red Sox wanted to win but one the Rays desperately needed to win. The game dragged and dragged, past midnight, past bedtimes and past last call. This was playoff baseball, at its longest.
You got to love October baseball. This might be our first entrance into the fraternity guys, but we will have a seat at this table for a few more years. So you better set a place for us and climb on and enjoy the ride.
What They are Saying About the ALCS
One of the greatest things about being successful is that you can create a buzz about your team from sea to shining sea in the United States. After we disposed of the Chicago White Sox in 4 games, the Tampa Bay Rays have set their sights on an old nemesis, the Boston Red Sox.
In years past this was not a rivalry, much less a lamb to the slaughter type of series. But with the Rays having claim to the American League East as the only team NOT from the Northeast to hold it since 1997, it will be sweet and delightful on the palate.
I am not saying this will be a one-sided, you lay down now type pf series. Both teams have alot of pride and their character will be tested early on in this matchup. Boston has to bring its Chowderheads into the sunshine and deposit their faithful in the new horror of the American League. There have been hundreds of comments on the cowbells and either you love them, or you hate them.
I am a card carrying, latin percussion cowbell guy, and I got the broken cowbells and bell-beatened cowbells to prove it. I am one of the first of the Maddon’s Maniacs group and I stand tall in the use of this musicial phenomenon to pulsate and deafen the Boston cheers. You can say you still hear them from time to time in the Trop. Well, we might let them have a little to make them think they can do more, then shut the door on them with the clanging and the slapping of our little noisemakers of choice.
We do not have the 7th inning staple of singing Neil Diamond yet, but I would not sing Neil Diamond for World Series tickets …………sorry. We have had a few rap and local bands produce theme songs this year, and you know we will have a musical mentor by the end of the series. It will not be Journey and their classic “Don’t Stop Believing”, it is already been done and is a bit cheesy at best to me.
But then again, we will not go totally retro or even modern by pronouncing a rap or hard rock act as our mentors in this series. Just becuase we adopted the cowbell from a Blue Oyster Cult track does not mean we will play “Don’t Fear the Reaper” 2 million times over the next few games. We will also not be a Loverboy mark and over play “Working for the Weekend” until your ears bleed.
We are a team that is still searching for it’s musical voice. But you can be sure that if we hit the big stage at the World Series, we will have a song and a prayer in our corner to hop aboard the big train and ride baby ride.
I have ebbn curious about what the local and national media hounds think about the series starting tonight at Tropicana Field. I have gathered a few snippets and really odd predictions from the media masses from coast to coast. Enjoy as you see local and Boston journalists’ pick the locals and the visitors’ as victors in this war for the right to represent the American League in the World Series:
Say what you want about the rotation being set up the way it is, but ultimately, it’s a game that is won and loss most night in the first 6 innings of the game. I think that the Rays, if they get ahead early and establish a consistant pitching performance from their big 4, it will be lights out for the Sox. The Sox do not want any part of our Bullpen streaming the game along after 7 with setting down the batters one by one until the Rays celebrate the win.
We Still Get No Respect
Somewtimes it is just hard to get respect when you had a losing team for so long. I know the Buc and Lightning fans understand this bad aura that hangs over your team like a huge albatross. But with the rise of the Tampa Bay Rays to the top of the American League East Championship, and on the doorstep of leaning in for the big prize, how could this happen to our local paper.
I opened the local fishwrap, the St. Petersburg Times the other day and found a reamrkable sight. It was not a huge picture of the Rays celebrating a win, or a local politician with a mohawk. It was a simple crossword puzzle enjoyed by millions each day that is supplied to the paper by a publishing syndicate. Well, upon gazing at this great puzzle of black and white, I noticed one line that read “Home of the Rays” on 16 Across.
And what do you think I thought when the word “St Pete” would not fin into that space. I pondered and wondered what other city could be used in that spot. “Trop. City” was too big. “Title town” had the righr feel, but was also too bog. So I filled in lines 9 down and found that the town had to have a “T” in it.
Can you believe that the copy clerks at the St. Petersburg Times, or even at the original publication let this error fly all the way into our little nest. Imagine the embarrassment and the humiliation that the Mayor of St. Petersburg must be feeling. You see “St. Petersburg, Home of the Tampa Bay Rays” on a rolling banner behind home plate every game, yet this error is in out hometown newspaper.
Rodney Dangerfield has made a career and a living out of trying to get respect. I find it a bit funny that now the city that started the commercial airlines business and the air postal idea is being bookended with the town to our East again. Even though the town that is now St. Petersburg was once a part of Hillsbough county in the past, it was actually called Hillsbough Point until John Williams established the city of St. Petersburg among the orange groves and sandy beaches.
Maybe we have to win it all to get that respect and have people remember who we are in St. Petersburg. I know I was born here and always have showed alot of pride to be from Florida and St. Petersburg. I never said I was from Tampa Bay because that is a regional name and not a city name in the region. Guess we just have to hoist a World Series parade on ESPN with a huge marching band from St. Petersburg High School with the huge word blazoned on their lead banner “St. Petersburg, Florida” on it. But then again, the announcers will just say it is a city in Tampa Bay.
I have had a few people ask me for a prediction on the ALCS this year. I know that the Boston faithful who have read this have commented and been a bit one-sided, but then again I understand civic pride. So for me to comment would be kind of anti-climatic. You know who I am rooting for, and what I hope will be the end result.
To put a finite number on a game______ ending would just ruin the focal point of the whole thing. We might have been Playoff virgins in the beginning, but we are 4-1, just like you in the playoffs so far this year. We might not be the reigning “World Champions”, but that is okay. They always say that time brings about change. To put it lightly, did you really expect me to post that the Red Sox were a better team. I only see a few spots where they might have an edge outside of Fenway Park.
But to be totally honest with you, does it matter what the homefield would be right now. Based on the 2008 statistics, we went 8-1 against you at home, and might have only went 2-7 at Fenway, but who won the last @ game there this year? Base the ideal on who has the better Bullpen and it is very one-sided. You might have a dominant closer, but we have a reliever triade that has stopped powerful team in their tracks all year long.
Tell me your Red Sox guys will pop back at Grant Balfour when he gets into his four-letter word fiasco on the mound. I could see a 98 m.p.h. earmuff if that happen too much in this series. Remember, this team is not scared of the Red abd White anymore. They have their own dish of confidience and they are not afraid of anything or anyone at this moment.
I am expecting a huge amount of ticket scalping to go on for this game and the Boston faithful will be the ones helping the local economy this weekend. I know of a few people who are selling their $ 55.00 tickets in the Baseline Box area for over $200 dollars. The one thing Rays fans loved about ex-Florida Governor Jeb Bush is he gave the little guy the voice to sell tickets above their face value again. Now, the Rays vs Red Sox matchup might not get the prices the Superbowl will get in a few months, but wait until the World Series, you might see a new high in Rays demand.
So, Boston fan, if you can’t get a seat in the Upper Deck for the ALCS, come on down to Ferg’s and enjoy the game with the locals. Or you can just retrats to your hotel’s cozy little fern bar and hope they will let you watch the game. Whereever you are at 8:37 p.m. tonight, you will hear a loud scream for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox have been a great team for the last 6 years, maybe it is time for the new world order to take over for a while………….It’s okay Boston, it will only hurt a little while……………Rays in 6 games
Boston Fans Hate the Cowbells……….Really Now?
My wish for the ALCS at the Trop – “A little less cowbell!”
The following is a reprint of a blog on www.SoxandPinstripes.com from October 8th, 2008. It was a submission by Jeff Louderback to the site.
I will giv e a bit of commentary here before the piece and let you know that some of the comment by him are just a Boston fans looking for negative in a hostile enviorment, but I understand that since I ahve been to Fenway Park wearing a Rays jersey in the last 2 years. The atmosphere has changed in Boston too, so do not throw stones at our glass house when yours also has some pretty picture window in front.
Gone from this October’s post-season excitement are the Thundersticks and the Rally Monkey. Taking their place in the ALCS are cowbells. Yes, cowbells, which clang amid the worst venue in Major League Baseball – Tropicana Field. It’s bad enough that the first two games and, if necessary, the last two games of the series will be played in a roach-infested, odd-shaped dome where balls bounce off catwalks in fair territory and the game is played on artificial turf. Now, the cowbells will be louder than ever as the Rays step onto the national stage Friday night.
(Roach infested, have you not been to a game at either Yankees Stadium or Shea in the last year. Since they are tearing the structures down, the stadium crews have done the minimum to keep these structure working before the wrecking ball takes it first on deck swings.)
Legend has it that the Rays introduced cowbells to Tropicana Field to drown out the boisterous chants of “Let’s go Red Sox!” during Red Sox-Rays series. One of my favorite modern-day Saturday Night Live skits involves Will Ferrell and a parody of Blue Oyster Cult in the studio recording “(Don’t Fear) the Reaper.” For those of you who appreciate classic rock, the clattering of the cowbell plays a significant role in the actual song. In the SNL skit, Christopher Walken’s character, a music producer implores, “A little more cowbell” and Ferrell’s character obliges.
(one of the reason for the addition of your worst nightmare aka cowbells was for the drowning out of the opposition. It was not only a process for the Boston faithful, but for Chicago, New York, and the Florida Marlin. You can be egotistical enough to think it was all for the Wrold Champs, but it did serve it purpose. You have been a bit quieter this year, or did the scoreboard bring on some hoarse moments.)
Believe me, if Walken was watching a baseball game at the Trop, those words would not leave his mouth. Cowbells, Thundersticks, Rally Monkeys and white towels may be appropriate at an NBA arena or an NFL stadium, but can’t we experience a baseball game without cheesy gimmicks to induce noise. Can’t fans work themselves into a frenzy on their own?
(I agree with you about the white towels, but considering that Major League Baseball and TBS handed out over 60,000 at the Trop last week, and even during today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, all fans will be presented with a towel upon entering the building. Some call these towels collectibles, others call them just annoying tools of the fan trade.)
Fenway Park has traditions that some consider corny, such as the singing of Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline” in the middle of the eighth inning. That, I admit, is a little embarrassing, though I love hearing “Dirty Water” after a Red Sox victory. However, Red Sox fans don’t need noise pollution and novelty items like cowbells to become immersed in the game. Can you imagine a cowbell or a Thunderstick at Fenway Park? Just walking into the hallowed baseball sanctuary is inspiration enough to make some noise when the game begins.
( I guess when we have been around as long as the Boston faithful fans, we can resort to other means of making noise. But since we are still in our first 25 years, we are growing the young following by small baby steps. I think the fans in Tampa Bay are really educated on the game, but some have not seen how to watch and be active participants yet in the great game. You do not have to paint your body blue, or wear Marge Simpson’s faux wig to get attention if you are a true fan….but then again, those are also the people they first interview after a tornado in the Midwest.)
Maybe, just maybe, if Tampa Bay maintains its winning ways for a few more seasons, the cowbell will disappear and the noise level from Rays fans alone will drown out Red Sox fans and Yankees fans who crowd the dome. For now, since many Tampa Bay residents don’t even know there is a Major League Baseball team that calls St. Petersburg home, we will have to tolerate the clattering of cowbells from the 5,000 Rays fans who actually bother to show up. At least that number has increased in recent months. There was a time earlier this season when Tampa Bay was lucky to get 1,000 people at the Trop rooting for the Rays when the Red Sox and Yankees were in town.
(For you information, we have had more sellouts this season than at any other point in our franchsie history, and that is only in it’s 11th year. When we have been around as long as you, we will have inherited seats and lotteries to get unspoken for season ticketholder seats. But, right now this team is also in an area of the country where there are a million things to so in the sun for fun some days and nights. For that reason, the fan base is not great yet, but winning does breed the possible addition of 5,000 or more for even the Seattle series every night next year.)
My suggestion to Rays supporters who attend the ALCS this weekend – yell yourself hoarse if you must, that is part of the baseball experience, but a little less cowbell, PLEASE!
(By the way, please take this as a compliment that I am writing about your blog. It should not be viewed as a Rays fan dogging you, but I respect you position and offer my counterpoint to it. No matter what happens in this series, remember this. Of these 2 teams, the best will rise to the top and face the National League. And after the battles that will take place on the field in the coming days, remember that these guys area laying it all out on that field for the fans and for pride. Hopefully both teams fans will show the same class in the stands during this ALCS both here and at Fenway. Let’s enjoy the sights and sounds and relish that a new rivalry is established this year in the A L East.


































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